Restarting planes that were grounded for months in 2020 has been a difficult and time-consuming endeavor for airlines, with ongoing ramifications. But all told, says Keyes, “we are looking at cheaper fares today than we were a year ago, and I expect that to continue.” The progress on all fronts is incremental. A drop in fares for the second half of the year may point to a temporary reprieve that lasts between the fall and early 2024, before other factors such as pilot retirements and higher oil prices raise airfares again. On the supply side, global airlines are finally starting taking possession of long-awaited, new aircraft - despite the latest minor aircraft delivery snag - and gradually bringing their ranks of pilots to pre-pandemic levels. Even high-end consumers’ travel spending budgets are showing a dip. And there’s rising concerns about inflation, banking turmoil and the potential for a recession.

Household savings aren’t as robust as they were following travel’s restart the past two years. In the US, consumer behavior is shifting. (Business travel has remained below pre-pandemic levels.) More dramatically, Alaska Air reported a loss of $142 million for the first quarter of 2023, citing lower leisure demand and surging costs. That may be the beginning of a trend for those early months in the year, says Brian Sumers, aviation analyst and founder of the Airline Observer newsletter. If flight cost is a reflection of supply and demand, pressure is easing up on both sides of the equation - at least for international flights out of the US. For instance, United Airlines cited lower-than-expected leisure demand for January and February 2023. The April 20 state of the industry report by trade association Airlines for America shows that airfares dropped 8.7% in the first quarter of 2023 from the 2019 first quarter. “For airfare the rest of the year, it’s going to be largely lower than it was last spring and summer,” says Keyes. Prices have already fallen 12% since hitting a peak in May 2022, says Scott Keyes, chief executive officer of the airfare deals subscription service Going, formerly known as Scott’s Cheap Flights, noting that the spike last spring was caused in part by the convergence of overwhelming “revenge travel” demand and an acute pilot shortage. But recently, aviation insiders have shown optimism that relief is on the way, with predictions that fares will soften as pent-up demand lets up and airlines continue to expand capacity and improve staffing. (Bloomberg) - It might seem as if getting back to the days of cheap or reasonably priced flights - beyond, say, a serendipitous airline pricing blunder - is a thing of the past.

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